Date & Time: 10/05/2022 @ 10:00 AM MST
Forecaster: Henz, D.
Yesterday’s forecast remains on track for today and through the end of the week with high temperatures returning to seasonal averages (low 90s for early October). We’re also starting to get refreshing overnight lows dipping into the 70s and even 60s across outlying locations. Fall is certainly coming. Looking at the big picture, a cutoff disturbance continues to spin along the southern AZ/NM/Mexico border region. Moving ahead this feature will retrograde southwest into the northern Baja region creating a better setup for deeper moisture return into southcentral AZ and resulting storm chances as the week wears on. For today/Thurs activity will generally remain confined to the higher terrain areas north and east of the Phoenix Valley, though there should be multiple chances for storms to descend into portions of the lower deserts through Sunday.
For today plan on mostly sunny skies across the region. Afternoon temperatures will climb into the 93˚F-96˚F range around the Valley. Variable winds will hover in the 5-10mph range with localized gusts in the 15-25mph range possible this evening. We were hoping for better moisture return into the region this morning, but conditions are still mostly dry. Afternoon/evening storm chances will mainly be focused across the higher terrain areas with perhaps a few storms pushing into parts of the lower deserts later tonight/overnight with gusty outflows and brief downpours. For most of us, plan on a quiet night.
Tomorrow should be a near repeat of today with mostly sunny conditions and normal breezes. Daytime highs will again warm into the 92˚F-95˚F range around the Valley. Afternoon/evening storm chances will depend on how much moisture is available across the region. Higher terrain areas will continue to see normal daily activity, though northeast flow could end up pushing some of that activity into the lower deserts during the evening hours if all works out. A similar story should play out again on Friday. We’ll have further updates including the upcoming weekend in tomorrow’s extended Outlook.